🔮📖 Vocabulary of the exponential age
We’re living through a phase of technological acceleration unlike any before it. To make sense of it, we need a shared language.
This beginner’s vocabulary introduces the core ideas of the Exponential Age, from adoption curves and energy transitions to network effects and scaling laws.
Master these terms, and you’ll start to see the patterns behind technological change.
⚡️ To dig deeper into the laws that govern technology progress, go to our Primer on technology laws.
🔖 Bookmark this page: this resource will evolve as the frontier moves.
A
Adoption curve = The rate at which a new technology or innovation is adopted by users, typically features a slow take-off, an exponential phase and then a lower growth rate. See also: S-Curve
Artificial intelligence (AI). Systems that perform tasks that typically require human cognition like perception, reasoning, learning, or decision-making. As it scales, it becomes both an amplifier of intelligence and a new source of physical demand. We consider it a general-purpose technology (GPT). See also: GPT
B
Baumol’s cost disease. The tendency for wages in low-productivity-growth sectors (such as education, healthcare, or live performance) to rise in line with those in high-productivity sectors, even when output per worker stagnates. Over time, this drives relative cost inflation in the “slow” parts of the economy.
Bottleneck. The limiting factor that constrains a system’s performance or scaling, often shifting over time from compute to energy, data, or talent. See also: scaling laws, modularity.
Breakthrough. A qualitative jump in capability or efficiency that resets expectations and renders previous performance baselines obsolete. See also: paradigm shift.
C
Capital intensity. The amount of capital required to produce a unit of output. Technologies that cheapen over time (e.g., compute, renewables) tend to reduce effective capital intensity.
Creative destruction. The process by which new technologies and firms replace old ones, reallocating resources across the economy. Term coined by Joseph Schumpeter. See also: technology transition.
D
Diffusion. The spread of innovation through populations or markets, governed by social, economic, and policy factors. See also: adoption curve.
Disruption. The displacement of established products or incumbents by innovations that start cheaper or simpler and move upmarket over time. See also: S-curve, learning rate.
E
Economies of learning. The cost advantages that a company or industry gains as it accumulates experience and knowledge over time.
Energy. Power expended or capable of being transformed into work, such as providing light and heat.
Energy transition. The transition from energy-as-commodity to energy-as-technology. Unlike fossil fuels, which are extracted and burned, energy-as-technology is generated through innovations that improve and cheapen over time. See Why Energy Tech is Eating the World
Exponential growth. A pattern of increase where a quantity grows by a fixed percentage over regular time periods. This results in increasingly rapid growth over time, as the increases compound on themselves.
Formula: f(x) = a(1 + r)t
Where:
f(x) is the function value
a is the initial value (a positive constant)
x is the exponent or power
t is the time elapsed
Exponential gap. The growing divide between the pace of technological change and the ability of individuals, organizations and societies to adapt to it. As defined in Azeem’s 2021 book.
Exponential technology. A technology which improves at double digits on a price-performance basis.
G
General-purpose technology (GPT). A technology that has broad applications across a wide range of sectors and spurs significant economic and social transformations.
Geoeconomic fragmentation. The reorganisation of trade, capital and technology flows along geopolitical lines, often through export controls and supply-chain “friend-shoring.”
I
Information. The communication or reception of knowledge or intelligence.
Intelligence stack. The evolving hierarchy from hardware and algorithms to synthetic cognition, shorthand for the architecture of modern AI.
J
Jevons paradox (rebound effect). Efficiency gains often increase, not reduce, resource consumption.
K
Knowledge. Information with causal powers (as per David Deutsch).
Knowledge spillover. The unintended transfer of expertise or insight between entities, fuelling regional or networked innovation clusters.
L
Learning rate. The speed at which learning and improvement occur, often used in the context of how quickly technology or systems improve in efficiency or capability.
M
Modularity. The design principle of creating complex systems from smaller, interchangeable components, allowing for economies of learning.
Moore’s law. The observation that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years with a minimal cost increase. It showcases the boom in computing since the 1960s.
N
Network effects. The phenomenon where a product or service becomes more valuable as more people use it, often leading to exponential growth in adoption and value.
P
Paradigm shift. A fundamental change in approach or underlying assumptions, often triggered by technological advancements or scientific discoveries.
S
S-curve. A visual representation of the adoption curve, named for its S-shaped pattern when plotted on a graph.
Scaling laws. Rules that show how things change when you make them bigger or give them more resources, often in surprising ways that aren’t just simple addition. See Primer on Technology Laws.
Singularity. A hypothetical future point where technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, leading to unforeseeable changes in human civilization.
T
Technology. Things getting cheaper
Technology transition. The process through which society shifts from one technological framework(s) to another, often involving significant changes in infrastructure, skills, and societal norms
Technological convergence. The process by which different technologies merge or integrate to create new, more powerful solutions or industries.
Techno-social systems. The complex interplay between technological advancements and social structures, emphasizing how they co-evolve and influence each other.
Time-space compression. The phenomenon where technological advancements in transportation and communication effectively reduce the distance between locations, making the world feel smaller and interactions quicker. Originally coined by David Harvey
Tipping point. A critical moment or threshold in the adoption of a new technology or product, after which its acceptance accelerates rapidly and becomes widespread, often leading to significant changes in markets, behaviors, or systems
W
Wright’s law. A principle stating that for every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage. See also: Our technology laws primer.