Great seeing you in SF and love your observations. My only other observation is that it strikes me that AI is crossing through all sectors and industries - in a way that is more profound than the advent of the internet. I'd also add that even as someone who has lived in Silicon Valley a long-time, the pace of change is staggering.
Great article! I started in the VC Debt business in the valley in 1986 and lived through a number of cycles over the decades. Your insights are spot on.
China! How are we not observing the fierce intra-national competition between DeepSeek and Alibaba Qwen, the 1.2 billion commerce test lab that speeds up learning cycles with exponentially more swings at bat, Xi Jinping’s crisis moment spurring a sea change in government attitudes to tech entrepreneurs, a nationalist streak being channeled toward AI innovation in core industries like manufacturing and defense?
Some of the data here is invaluable, for example the reference to Cursor's revenue growth. I have used Cursor for almost a year, but I had no idea.
Two questions:
1) What does it mean for SV to be ahead?
2) Is it?
An investor looking for startup investments may see things vastly differently than someone looking for the 'impact of today's AI/Robotics on current business and organizations'.
From my perspective in Berkeley, it seems likely that SV is leading, but I'm not confident—especially after looking at the line up at the lineup for the AI Engineer Summit going on in NYC right now. https://www.youtube.com/live/D7BzTxVVMuw.
Those who see the search for AGI as off the mark, like Microsoft's Satya Nadella, may not center the startup competition. His interview in Dwarkesh Patel's in depth podcast impressed me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GLSzuYXh6w.
This edition of Exponential view is full of valuable information and perspective. I'm sure Azeem's next visit to the Bay Area will provide more insight.
The tidbit from Sweden — Lovable has surpassed $4 million in ARR since November 2024 — got my attention and raised questions. What else is happening in Europe? How many in Europe are looking to efforts like Mistrial to offer counter point to Trump's drive to isolate Europe? Unquestionably, SV is hot. What about the rest of the planet?
I expect the most significant developments over the next 2 years will be in the intersection of test time inference and domain knowledge from diverse areas of science, engineering, medicine, etc. We are dealing with a general purpose technology. The key unit of modularity may well be domain models built with emerging post training techniques. (Not necessarily language or reasoning models.) SV will be in the mix and may dominate, but I wouldn't rule out big leaps in NYC with banking & the arts, Paris at the nexus of thousands of well trained researchers, India, or China with its leadership in so many areas of manufacturing, robotics, drugs, energy and transportation.
Great seeing you in SF and love your observations. My only other observation is that it strikes me that AI is crossing through all sectors and industries - in a way that is more profound than the advent of the internet. I'd also add that even as someone who has lived in Silicon Valley a long-time, the pace of change is staggering.
Great article! I started in the VC Debt business in the valley in 1986 and lived through a number of cycles over the decades. Your insights are spot on.
You can't tempt me with a detail like that without sharing more! Did you subscribe to Silicon Valley Engineer?
Great piece Azeem ! Hope to MIP next time you come to Paris
China! How are we not observing the fierce intra-national competition between DeepSeek and Alibaba Qwen, the 1.2 billion commerce test lab that speeds up learning cycles with exponentially more swings at bat, Xi Jinping’s crisis moment spurring a sea change in government attitudes to tech entrepreneurs, a nationalist streak being channeled toward AI innovation in core industries like manufacturing and defense?
Great post! I would be really curious to hear about your predictions for Europe.
Some of the data here is invaluable, for example the reference to Cursor's revenue growth. I have used Cursor for almost a year, but I had no idea.
Two questions:
1) What does it mean for SV to be ahead?
2) Is it?
An investor looking for startup investments may see things vastly differently than someone looking for the 'impact of today's AI/Robotics on current business and organizations'.
From my perspective in Berkeley, it seems likely that SV is leading, but I'm not confident—especially after looking at the line up at the lineup for the AI Engineer Summit going on in NYC right now. https://www.youtube.com/live/D7BzTxVVMuw.
Those who see the search for AGI as off the mark, like Microsoft's Satya Nadella, may not center the startup competition. His interview in Dwarkesh Patel's in depth podcast impressed me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GLSzuYXh6w.
This edition of Exponential view is full of valuable information and perspective. I'm sure Azeem's next visit to the Bay Area will provide more insight.
The tidbit from Sweden — Lovable has surpassed $4 million in ARR since November 2024 — got my attention and raised questions. What else is happening in Europe? How many in Europe are looking to efforts like Mistrial to offer counter point to Trump's drive to isolate Europe? Unquestionably, SV is hot. What about the rest of the planet?
I expect the most significant developments over the next 2 years will be in the intersection of test time inference and domain knowledge from diverse areas of science, engineering, medicine, etc. We are dealing with a general purpose technology. The key unit of modularity may well be domain models built with emerging post training techniques. (Not necessarily language or reasoning models.) SV will be in the mix and may dominate, but I wouldn't rule out big leaps in NYC with banking & the arts, Paris at the nexus of thousands of well trained researchers, India, or China with its leadership in so many areas of manufacturing, robotics, drugs, energy and transportation.
Hi Azeem,
Great read as always, thanks.
We fall under point 2: The top-tier AI founders from the EU.
Would love to get in touch with you.
You can then judge by yourself if you think we fall in that category.
We are the only creative production hub built for fashion.
Leveraging stable diffusion, agents, and automation for multiple global fashion brands both from EU and the US.
https://www.leapfrogai.com/
Let me know if you'd want to chat.