In February 2023, when ChatGPT had just hit 100 million users and launched its $20 premium tier, I ran the numbers on revenue potential. My napkin math pointed to monthly revenues of at least $60 million by year-end. Readers thought I was optimistic. OpenAI closed 2023 at $1.6 billion in annualized revenue and then tripled it the following year.
A month ago, I asked whether they could reach $100 billion in full year revenues by 2027. The math showed a plausible route: layered subscription momentum, enterprise API growth, international expansion, advertising and agentic systems. I concluded:
Is it possible? The mathematics says yes – barely, but yes.
Sam Altman’s declaration of a “code red” makes that ‘barely possible’ even more unlikely.
OpenAI remains the fastest-growing technology company in history, with revenues approaching $13 billion this year and 800 million weekly active users. But now Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek are pressuring OpenAI to choose between defending its core produc…
