👀 Did OpenAI’s $100 billion path just get narrower?

Sam Altman’s internal pivot tells us something important about the AI market right now

In February 2023, when ChatGPT had just hit 100 million users and launched its $20 premium tier, I ran the numbers on revenue potential. My napkin math pointed to monthly revenues of at least $60 million by year-end. Readers thought I was optimistic. OpenAI closed 2023 at $1.6 billion in annualized revenue and then tripled it the following year.

A month ago, I asked whether they could reach $100 billion in full year revenues by 2027. The math showed a plausible route: layered subscription momentum, enterprise API growth, international expansion, advertising and agentic systems. I concluded:

Is it possible? The mathematics says yes – barely, but yes.

Sam Altman’s declaration of a “code red” makes that ‘barely possible’ even more unlikely.

OpenAI remains the fastest-growing technology company in history, with revenues approaching $13 billion this year and 800 million weekly active users. But now Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek are pressuring OpenAI to choose between defending its core produc…