🔮 Ultracheap batteries; Bengio on AI risk; the hardest maze ++ #482
An insider’s guide to the exponential age
Ideas of the week
LFP: It’s as easy as 1-2-3. Lithium battery pack prices in China have fallen 37% in the past year to $75/kWh, driven by manufacturer margin compression, overcapacity, lower material costs1 and, of course, technological advances. This represents a 93% decline since 2010, when prices were $1,183/kWh. Research provider Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) expects these conditions to keep prices low for years to come. I’d go one step further and say they will continue to fall, and fall fast. The falling price of batteries will accelerate the uptake of electric vehicles and stationary energy storage. This creates a virtuous circle – increased adoption leads to more production experience, which leads to further cost reductions and technological improvements. The cycle is likely to continue, with future technologies such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries promising further advances. If current trends continue, battery prices could reach $23/kWh by 2030. Even if the price …