🔮 Copyright & AI; transition minerals; “virtual souls”; toppling Tetris ++ #455
An insider's guide to AI and exponential technologies
Hi, I’m Azeem Azhar. As a global expert on exponential technologies, I advise governments, some of the world’s largest firms, and investors on how to make sense of our exponential future. Every Sunday, I share my view on developments that I think you should know about in this newsletter.
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Sunday chart: Greener energy, fewer mines
Cobalt mining in the Congo, indigenous peoples’ land conflicts, and China’s dominance of rare earths. These are just some of the challenges brought about by the need for the 6.8 gigatonnes of bulk commodities needed for the energy transition.
Procuring these minerals demands significant shifts, like building new mines in politically sensitive areas. Even so, the mining demands from the energy transition are still substantially less than the current fossil fuel system. According to Nijnens et al., the annual bulk commodities required for the 2040 IEA net zero emissions scenario is 45% less than current coal extraction. This is even after considering the low concentrations of critical minerals in the ores. For a further breakdown,
does a brilliant job of investigating the studies.This doesn’t solve existing challenges, but it does show that the environmental effects of the energy transition’s mineral needs are most likely less than the status quo. Moreover, we are finding solutions to these issues. As we mentioned in a previous newsletter, NorthVolt recently developed a sodium-ion battery that it claims to be “the first product ever completely free from critical raw materials”. If true, this will cut down our dependence on minerals like cobalt and lithium, which China largely controls.
Advances in technology and better recycling will keep reducing the mining impact of the energy shift. But one thing is sure: the renewable energy system is already shaping up to be much better than what we’ve got.
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Key reads
The battle for information. The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft for allegedly using millions of its articles to train ChatGPT without permission. As I wrote in my horizon scan 2024, this will likely be the defining case on the relationship between LLM providers and copyright holders. For a good breakdown of the legal aspects of this case, see Celia Zin’s commentary.
Publishing partnerships—a compromise—look the most likely way forward, but as I highlight in the horizon scan,
[o]nly those with the biggest platforms can afford those fees, and only the largest publishers will have legal-commercial teams to secure those licences and the preferential access that comes with them. There be dragons.
New technologies up-end behaviours and norms: the Catholic church’s hold on knowledge, the economic contribution of the blacksmith, and the utility of the videotape. Sanctities become bygone relics. Norms change. Copyright is, and always has been, a compromise between incentivising creators and increasing social welfare by promoting cultural participation, sharing knowledge and affording creative freedoms.
That compromise is highly dependent on the nature of the technology. And LLMs (and the wave of digitisation from the decades before) have made the need to rethink that economic compromise that is copyright more urgent. I prefer models that separate authorship and attribution from these decades-long economic rights, favouring IP hoarders. Reform could include substantially shorter copyright terms, more robust protections for fair use, and clearer thinking on how copyright holders and licensees are incentivised.
See also:
The last significant technological disruption in journalism had a major consequence, the decline of local news. By the end of next year, it is expected that the US will have lost a third of its newspapers since 2005. Sadly, new local news sources haven’t grown fast enough to replace them.
Camera companies are fighting AI photography fakes with new digital signatures applied within the camera.
Lawmakers in the US have proposed the “AI Foundation Model Transparency Act”, requiring model creators to disclose training data sources so copyright holders can know if their information was used.
OpenAI’s GPT store will be released next week.
Regulatory reckoning. In 2024, we can expect more tech crackdowns (and no, this time we aren’t talking about China). The WSJ spotlighted major legal fights in the US for Google over its search dominance and ad tech market acquisitions, and for Meta, whose acquisitions of WhatsApp and Instagram are said to stifle competition. This follows the EU’s Digital Markets Act from last year, which targets antitrust issues with big tech companies, known as “gatekeepers.” The act has forced Apple to allow iPhone users to bypass the App Store to download apps in the EU. These cases will likely set new precedents for the regulation of Big Tech. Given the emerging monopolistic tendencies in LLMs, these cases could offer insights into their future governance.
Miquela, Aitana & Kuki. What do these three names have in common? Other than their phonetic softness, they are all the names of virtual influencers. Right now, their ability to influence seems relatively benign - they’re corporate-controlled curiosities - entertaining consumers with their novelty and attractiveness. But they represent the first step in artificial manipulation, using their image to encourage consumption. This persuasion is only going to become more convincing with LLMs. As Mark Esposito and co-authors point out, LLMs can be built with persuasion in mind, for which we as a society are woefully unprepared. Companies might use this chance to sell more products, and even more worryingly, state actors may use it to weaken democracy.
Market data
The timeline for AI just got a hell of a lot quicker. A paper asking 2778 AI researchers for their predictions on AI progress. They give a 10% chance that machines will be better than humans at all tasks by 2027, and 50% by 2047. This 2047 estimate is 13 years sooner than last year’s prediction.
From August to year’s end, Ukraine deployed 2874 FPV drones, notably surpassing Russia’s 1485, evidence against earlier speculations about Russia’s dominance in drone production.
In 2023, China experienced a substantial population decline of 3.12 million, a marked deterioration from the 850,000 decrease in 2022. For a detailed analysis of China’s demographic challenges, refer to our comprehensive Chartpack on China’s economic destiny.
Approximately 75% of the world’s industrial fishing vessels, along with over 25% of transport and energy vessel activities, remain untracked by public monitoring systems.
China’s BYD surpasses Tesla to become the world’s largest EV manufacturer.
Turns out Grok is the biggest Leftie of all the major LLMs.
Short morsels to appear smart at dinner parties
🧫 The genesis of the micropipette, biology and chemistry’s landmark tool.
🧠 The birth of the neuron could have happened… twice?
🪙 Coin flips turn out not to have an exact 50/50 chance of falling on either side.
🎯 Tetris has finally been beaten.
📱 Voice notes are opening up a new network of collaboration for illiterate Senegalese farmers.
🛰️ Starlink launched “cellphone towers in space”, satellites that provide cellular transmission.
🔔 To push or not to push (notifications.)
🌊 Ancient indigenous songlines match sunken land near Australia.
End note
I’ll be attending the Annual Meeting of the WEF in Davos from Jan 15th to the 19th
While my schedule is really tight, please drop me a note if you want to connect or have an event or dinner running. Best to use the WEF Toplink communication system to reach me, but if you don’t have that, send an email.
Cheers,
A
What you’re up to — community updates
Members Robbie Stamp and Chanuki Seresinhe will be discussing whether AI could get goosebumps in an in-person event in London.
Simon Torrance on understanding and managing AI risk.
Ben Combes on what next for climate action.
Share your updates with EV readers by telling us what you’re up to here.
Important observation:
"Copyright is, and always has been, a compromise between incentivising creators and increasing social welfare by promoting cultural participation, sharing knowledge and affording creative freedoms."
Rather than betting on a horse race between two entities that should not control our information flow or ignoring the stifling effect on creativity of current copyright law, I hope there is more interest in adjusting this compromise in copyright law. It's hard to see how that can happen in the US, but interest and concern will need to preed action.
That was the premise of the medium link I shared.