🔮 Infrastructure, investment and the great AI bottleneck of 2025

I spoke yesterday with

Dylan Patel

, founder of SemiAnalysis, one of my go-to experts on semiconductors and data center infrastructure. Several key themes emerged about where AI might be headed in 2025. I wanted to share a synthesis of those insights for our Exponential View community, given the often under-appreciated infrastructure and capital implications of this rapidly evolving landscape.

1/ Big Tech’s accelerating CapEx and market adjustments
The hyperscalers are racing ahead in capital expenditure, with Microsoft’s annual outlay likely to surpass $80 billion (up from around $15 billion just five years ago). By mid-decade, total annual investments in AI-driven data centers could climb from around $150–200 billion today to $400–500 billion. While these expansions power more advanced models and services, such rapid spending raises questions for investors. Are shareholders ready for ongoing, multi-fold increases in data center build-outs?

2/ The competitive landscape and new infrastructure players