AI’s productivity paradox: how it might unfold more slowly than we think

From steam engines to GPTs: the long road to productivity

I want to play a game of counterfactuals. If artificial intelligence disappoints as a technology, why might that be?

Historically, technologies like the steam engine and personal computers boosted productivity, raised GDP and reshaped societies—transforming where and how people live, work and even what they value. I believe AI is such a technology and it has the potential to deliver those benefits—and faster than previous technologies.

But, of course, I always like to challenge my own thinking.

So, today I want to explore a scenario where AI disappoints by failing to deliver significant productivity improvements within a short timeframe—say, five years. Through this lens, I’ll examine the challenges that could slow down AI’s impact and think about the implications of a less revolutionary trajectory.

AI as a GPT

Before we discuss potential disappointing scenarios, I want to first lay out the reasons that AI could be a general-purpose technology.

First of all, AI’s potential as a GPT lie…