That Sam Altman has been talking to investors about up to $7 trillion to “reshape the global semiconductor industry” has provoked a response from the peanut gallery not seen since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Here is my take.
The world needs vast amounts of compute
This demand for silicon cycles existed before ChatGPT. Presenting to clients last year, I estimated that global installed computing power has increased by 0.6 x 10^11 (roughly 60 billion times) since 1971 and the debut of the first commercial microprocessor, the Intel 4004.
What will demand for compute look like over the coming 20 to 30 years?
It will grow and grow and grow. Why? An economy’s ability to deliver welfare and prosperity to its people depends on how much energy it can usefully apply and how well it can apply information to valuable activities. There are no energy-poor, information-scarce economies that have good social outcomes for their people.
Want to find ways to …