An excellent and informative essay. I am fascinated by the changes the pandemic could create or accelerate so am glad Azeem has given the subject so much time. If any EV readers have any good resources related I'd love to hear what they are.
I believe in the core point that it will accelerate a lot of positive change but also feel worried by the possibility of right wing nationalism rising from it. Hopefully this threat will be tempered by the need for socialist policies that will pull some right wing governments towards the centre and the greater sense of community that, for now at least, has developed in many countries.
Thanks a lot for the essay! Really enjoyed the forecasting effort. Btw the post created quite a conversation in my twitter feed. Cheers to that!
Below the four scenarios of the Zukunftinstitut (Future Institute) in Frankfurt. Translation by me. Some parts are my interpretation and additions (especially in point 4). Please be mindful of this fact 🙂
1. Total Isolation: Shutdown became the new normal. (Public) transport and borders are heavily monitored and regulated. Trade deals are done for primary care only. We adapt to the status quo and forget.
2. System Crash: Recession became a depression. Focus on national interests has massively diminished global cooperation. The fear of a new outbreak forces leaders to solely take myopic decisions. Borders closed. We fight for toilet paper and medical equipment. International Solidarity is at an all time low. We live in nervous times.
3. Neo-Tribes: The world lives in local structures. We focus on local production. Family is the new (old) center. Small communities are newly developed and solidify in a back-to-the roots us vs. them culture. Sustainability and us-culture are values lived locally not globally. We don’t contemplate avocado in poke bowls but self-grown potatoes of Tim the tribe member down the road.
4. Adaption: Learning. Come back stronger. We adapt to new situations and are flexible with change. The world economy grows, but slower. Some parts stagnate. Companies detach from growth and develop adaptable business models. There’s a way of letting dinosaurs die in peace. Nobody minds. We move on. New KPIs replace the abstract idea of GDP growth. We include cost for ethics in our balance sheets due to believe in long term, resilient business agreements. Smart contracts ensure trust. Money can’t be arbitrarily inflated. Humans own their data. Influencer value and stress respect. Kids and teens idolise mindful superstars, who achieve success in contemporary disciplines due to higher focus and awareness. Bridge builders are favoured over candy-rush activists. The Dirk Nowitzki Space Elevator is the biggest symbol of values of the enlightenment materialised in a global tourist attraction: “Don’t do harm” is the new yolo.
Dream big 🙂 or go home!
Big shout out to all the care workers and critical service employees. Also respect to the community members who kept and keep us informed of the situation in others countries. In Germany, especially in Munich, hospitals have luckily stood resilient to the chaos. People (even intellectuals) are getting cooky about the status quo: "Nothing was ever as bad as the media and the politicians said it was. The hospitals aren't even that full!" I'm happy for every reasonable thought and opinion. Especially in this community. Thanks for making my corona time a way more informed time as I could have ever hoped for! Enough with the cake :-) let's eat the cherries and get back to work again, in the new way.
"Paradoxically, as we now see the downsides of a physically-connected world, the success in controlling the pandemic, so far, in autocratic Eastern countries with more state control and the inevitable encroachment on personal ‘freedom’, as group outcomes overcome individual ones, means that personal data privacy may no longer be an option."
This makes it sounds like autocratic Eastern countries are the only ones that have been successful in fighting the virus. What about New Zealand, Iceland, Denmark, Germany, or maybe most importantly Taiwan which yes is Easter but not autocratic at all.
I find this essay interesting and there are plenty of thought provoking ideas, although not many which are particularly surprising. However, as a Complexity Scientist, it does bother me that David’s essay is full of technical terminology from complex systems and networks, which I am not really convinced he understands the meaning/importance of. The ideas are great, but they do not need to be validated by talking about ‘fractal’ this and ‘small world’ that - it gives an impression of someone who doesn’t really understand the field. That is fine, but I think this essay oversells.
I think a key question will be how fast will there be an effective treatment and how quickly will we have a vaccine. People are inherently social I think so changing social behaviors will take a long time, while they will bounce back really quickly. There will be scales of the bounce, there are essential social gatherings (i would say restaurants, bars and I think sports, as well as maybe concerts that fall into that). There is probably something in the middle, like smaller networking gatherings (think Ted), and then there are large scale events like industry fairs which I think will be hit hardest. For essential gatherings virtual, I think will be very hard to replace real-life, I think it would have to take more than two years for people to change their behaviors there. For the non-essential gatherings, I think we will see the biggest change, especially if we are looking at more than a year of those events not happening and people realizing how those non-essential events working without being in person.
I think similar nuances exist for all of the scenarios.
Another question if you dare: "Left will have to move to a larger model of unified as well as diverse identity to prevent the sweep of right-wing nationalism" Since the right has power in the USA right now, and this has traditionally been hard to change after a 4-year term. What does the Left need to do to achieve "a larger model of unified as well as diverse identity". Could you elaborate on the meaning of this?
I don't have any special insight here but to me (as someone who would identify as on 'the left' socially while believing the capitalist model has plenty to give if managed correctly) the right tends to have a cause and manage to work together on it. They want the same things, transfer of capital, small state, deregulation, and do not seem to argue internally too much around those issues.
There's a lot of criticism of the left being fragmented and there's some truth in this. On the left there are debates on how strongly we should pursue climate goals, how hard social issues should be pushed etc and sometimes this prevents just working together to make some progress. If you think of the environment movement, renewable energy is now really taking off because it is a good decision economically. Maybe the left can learn to operate better through the lens of capitalism and small wins, one step at a time.
The right seem to have countless 'think tanks' and lobby groups that are in theory independent but somehow manage to successfully push for the same things.
Debate is happening in the context of a population still adapting to the internet enabled world (see issues around election hacking with disinformation, bot networks etc) and a backlash against globalisation which the right seem to have more successfully seized as ammunition than the left. Through the lens of history now would seem an ideal moment for labour movements to be campaigning for better rights for workers and job security but instead it has become ammunition for nationalist leaning politicians like Trump and Orban.
Thank you for the great essay. To help me get up to speed on some shared assumptions, I have two minor questions:
a) "For most of history, GDP was a function of population, and for eighteen of the last twenty centuries, China and India constituted most of the world’s wealth output". This idea is novel to me and it makes complete sense but I was wondering if you could point me to your sources so I could explore this more in-depth? The result you paint, "China’s economic re-emergence suggests that it’s possible that Western hegemony was merely a blip and that the global center of gravity geopolitically" is really eye-opening.
b) "Economically, while inflation has arguably been there all along (we just haven’t been measuring it correctly) we will likely see a return of inflation, or rather, stagflation, and a shift away from monetarist policies to fiscal ones." You seem to have a much deeper view on inflation. I would love to explore that more, as I find inflation facilitating and your article fascinating. Specifically, how would you recommend measuring inflation (sources or readings would be great)?
Very interesting essay. " in-person experiences may increasingly become premium ones..." I think this element is what is going to more critical, as I see this as a key challenge to what has been identified from many as "The Experience Economy". Moving to Zoom or Netflix like ecosystems will probably work for some sectors, but I wonder how much of this trend will really stay. I tried to explore a bit of this here: https://sergiocaredda.eu/experience/covid-19-and-the-experience-economy/
Thinking forward is a tricky undertaking when the data we have to examine are limited and novel to different degrees. It’s just my feeling that how our concepts of politics, finance, technology and social structures are to be organized going forward will be in conflict among and between various groups. Plus our ongoing climate emergency will add on complications as we try to move forward. I’m inclined to think that the unfolding decade will be turbulent and scary for most people — and perhaps involve huge declines in the overall human population.
An excellent and informative essay. I am fascinated by the changes the pandemic could create or accelerate so am glad Azeem has given the subject so much time. If any EV readers have any good resources related I'd love to hear what they are.
I believe in the core point that it will accelerate a lot of positive change but also feel worried by the possibility of right wing nationalism rising from it. Hopefully this threat will be tempered by the need for socialist policies that will pull some right wing governments towards the centre and the greater sense of community that, for now at least, has developed in many countries.
Thanks a lot for the essay! Really enjoyed the forecasting effort. Btw the post created quite a conversation in my twitter feed. Cheers to that!
Below the four scenarios of the Zukunftinstitut (Future Institute) in Frankfurt. Translation by me. Some parts are my interpretation and additions (especially in point 4). Please be mindful of this fact 🙂
1. Total Isolation: Shutdown became the new normal. (Public) transport and borders are heavily monitored and regulated. Trade deals are done for primary care only. We adapt to the status quo and forget.
2. System Crash: Recession became a depression. Focus on national interests has massively diminished global cooperation. The fear of a new outbreak forces leaders to solely take myopic decisions. Borders closed. We fight for toilet paper and medical equipment. International Solidarity is at an all time low. We live in nervous times.
3. Neo-Tribes: The world lives in local structures. We focus on local production. Family is the new (old) center. Small communities are newly developed and solidify in a back-to-the roots us vs. them culture. Sustainability and us-culture are values lived locally not globally. We don’t contemplate avocado in poke bowls but self-grown potatoes of Tim the tribe member down the road.
4. Adaption: Learning. Come back stronger. We adapt to new situations and are flexible with change. The world economy grows, but slower. Some parts stagnate. Companies detach from growth and develop adaptable business models. There’s a way of letting dinosaurs die in peace. Nobody minds. We move on. New KPIs replace the abstract idea of GDP growth. We include cost for ethics in our balance sheets due to believe in long term, resilient business agreements. Smart contracts ensure trust. Money can’t be arbitrarily inflated. Humans own their data. Influencer value and stress respect. Kids and teens idolise mindful superstars, who achieve success in contemporary disciplines due to higher focus and awareness. Bridge builders are favoured over candy-rush activists. The Dirk Nowitzki Space Elevator is the biggest symbol of values of the enlightenment materialised in a global tourist attraction: “Don’t do harm” is the new yolo.
Dream big 🙂 or go home!
Big shout out to all the care workers and critical service employees. Also respect to the community members who kept and keep us informed of the situation in others countries. In Germany, especially in Munich, hospitals have luckily stood resilient to the chaos. People (even intellectuals) are getting cooky about the status quo: "Nothing was ever as bad as the media and the politicians said it was. The hospitals aren't even that full!" I'm happy for every reasonable thought and opinion. Especially in this community. Thanks for making my corona time a way more informed time as I could have ever hoped for! Enough with the cake :-) let's eat the cherries and get back to work again, in the new way.
Source: https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/artikel/der-corona-effekt-4-zukunftsszenarien/
"Paradoxically, as we now see the downsides of a physically-connected world, the success in controlling the pandemic, so far, in autocratic Eastern countries with more state control and the inevitable encroachment on personal ‘freedom’, as group outcomes overcome individual ones, means that personal data privacy may no longer be an option."
This makes it sounds like autocratic Eastern countries are the only ones that have been successful in fighting the virus. What about New Zealand, Iceland, Denmark, Germany, or maybe most importantly Taiwan which yes is Easter but not autocratic at all.
I find this essay interesting and there are plenty of thought provoking ideas, although not many which are particularly surprising. However, as a Complexity Scientist, it does bother me that David’s essay is full of technical terminology from complex systems and networks, which I am not really convinced he understands the meaning/importance of. The ideas are great, but they do not need to be validated by talking about ‘fractal’ this and ‘small world’ that - it gives an impression of someone who doesn’t really understand the field. That is fine, but I think this essay oversells.
I think a key question will be how fast will there be an effective treatment and how quickly will we have a vaccine. People are inherently social I think so changing social behaviors will take a long time, while they will bounce back really quickly. There will be scales of the bounce, there are essential social gatherings (i would say restaurants, bars and I think sports, as well as maybe concerts that fall into that). There is probably something in the middle, like smaller networking gatherings (think Ted), and then there are large scale events like industry fairs which I think will be hit hardest. For essential gatherings virtual, I think will be very hard to replace real-life, I think it would have to take more than two years for people to change their behaviors there. For the non-essential gatherings, I think we will see the biggest change, especially if we are looking at more than a year of those events not happening and people realizing how those non-essential events working without being in person.
I think similar nuances exist for all of the scenarios.
Another question if you dare: "Left will have to move to a larger model of unified as well as diverse identity to prevent the sweep of right-wing nationalism" Since the right has power in the USA right now, and this has traditionally been hard to change after a 4-year term. What does the Left need to do to achieve "a larger model of unified as well as diverse identity". Could you elaborate on the meaning of this?
I don't have any special insight here but to me (as someone who would identify as on 'the left' socially while believing the capitalist model has plenty to give if managed correctly) the right tends to have a cause and manage to work together on it. They want the same things, transfer of capital, small state, deregulation, and do not seem to argue internally too much around those issues.
There's a lot of criticism of the left being fragmented and there's some truth in this. On the left there are debates on how strongly we should pursue climate goals, how hard social issues should be pushed etc and sometimes this prevents just working together to make some progress. If you think of the environment movement, renewable energy is now really taking off because it is a good decision economically. Maybe the left can learn to operate better through the lens of capitalism and small wins, one step at a time.
The right seem to have countless 'think tanks' and lobby groups that are in theory independent but somehow manage to successfully push for the same things.
Debate is happening in the context of a population still adapting to the internet enabled world (see issues around election hacking with disinformation, bot networks etc) and a backlash against globalisation which the right seem to have more successfully seized as ammunition than the left. Through the lens of history now would seem an ideal moment for labour movements to be campaigning for better rights for workers and job security but instead it has become ammunition for nationalist leaning politicians like Trump and Orban.
Thank you for the great essay. To help me get up to speed on some shared assumptions, I have two minor questions:
a) "For most of history, GDP was a function of population, and for eighteen of the last twenty centuries, China and India constituted most of the world’s wealth output". This idea is novel to me and it makes complete sense but I was wondering if you could point me to your sources so I could explore this more in-depth? The result you paint, "China’s economic re-emergence suggests that it’s possible that Western hegemony was merely a blip and that the global center of gravity geopolitically" is really eye-opening.
b) "Economically, while inflation has arguably been there all along (we just haven’t been measuring it correctly) we will likely see a return of inflation, or rather, stagflation, and a shift away from monetarist policies to fiscal ones." You seem to have a much deeper view on inflation. I would love to explore that more, as I find inflation facilitating and your article fascinating. Specifically, how would you recommend measuring inflation (sources or readings would be great)?
Very interesting essay. " in-person experiences may increasingly become premium ones..." I think this element is what is going to more critical, as I see this as a key challenge to what has been identified from many as "The Experience Economy". Moving to Zoom or Netflix like ecosystems will probably work for some sectors, but I wonder how much of this trend will really stay. I tried to explore a bit of this here: https://sergiocaredda.eu/experience/covid-19-and-the-experience-economy/
Thinking forward is a tricky undertaking when the data we have to examine are limited and novel to different degrees. It’s just my feeling that how our concepts of politics, finance, technology and social structures are to be organized going forward will be in conflict among and between various groups. Plus our ongoing climate emergency will add on complications as we try to move forward. I’m inclined to think that the unfolding decade will be turbulent and scary for most people — and perhaps involve huge declines in the overall human population.