🎄 What progress looks like

tl;dr: It’s bumpy

Progress is often depicted as a gentle, upward-sloping exponential curve - a smooth path toward better outcomes. This representation has become so ubiquitous in how we think about technological and social advancement that it shapes our expectations and, potentially, distorts our understanding of reality.

The truth is messier. Progress follows a turbulent, oscillating path around that idealized trend line. While the overall direction might be upward, the journey is marked by volatility, setbacks, and unexpected accelerations. We often lose sight of the underlying positive trajectory amid these dramatic fluctuations.

Consider recent examples. A 10% spike in lithium-ion battery prices in 2022 led to headlines questioning the viability of the electric vehicle transition. Yet this temporary disruption occurred against a backdrop of dramatic long-term cost declines in battery technology. 2024 prices today are 30% below 2022. Similar wobbles show up solar capacity. It’s easy to mistake a bit of volatility for a break in the trend. I wager that the trend will recover, probably next year but certainly within a few.

Similarly, the semiconductor industry has experienced recurring supply chain crises, most notably during the pandemic, when chip shortages cascaded through global manufacturing. Despite these disruptions, the industry has consistently delivered on Moore’s Law and now, perhaps, Huang’s Law.

Fasten your seat belts

This pattern of turbulent progress isn’t limited to technology.