Exponential View

Exponential View

🔮 The collapse of 'long' AI timelines

The prospect of reaching human-level AI in the 2030s should be jarring

Helen Toner
Apr 02, 2025
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Nothing embodies that acceleration more viscerally than the prospect of human-level AI arriving not in some distant sci-fi future, but within the span of a few years—or, at most, a couple of decades.

This is why I’m thrilled to publish this guest essay by

Helen Toner
whose insights on the governance of advanced AI are deeply informed, unusually clear-headed and urgently needed. Helen is just beginning to share her thinking more publicly, launching her own Substack Rising Tide where this post was originally published.

But Helen’s no newcomer to these conversations. She is widely recognized as an AI policy expert and researcher with over a decade of experience in the field. She served on OpenAI’s board of directors from 2021 until the leadership crisis in November 2023, where she played a significant role in governance decisions. Helen is currently the director of strategy at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown’s Walsh School of Foreign Service.

In this essay, Helen outlin…

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Helen Toner's avatar
A guest post by
Helen Toner
AI, national security, China. Part of the founding team at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
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