Exponential View

Exponential View

Preparing for the next European war

European leaders are learning from the success of Ronald Reagan

Azeem Azhar
Feb 24, 2025
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Three years ago, over one hundred Russian missiles blitzed Ukraine’s cities and military bases. Sukhoi jets crushed air defenses. Paratroopers seized Hostomel Airport; amphibious forces stormed Mariupol.

Poland or Estonia could be next within a few short years.

Russia has waged a grey war against Europe for years—disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage. Its intensity will grow. Undersea cables will snap, industrial accidents will multiply, railways will fail, GPS jamming will spread. Perhaps a deliberate atrocity—a long-range missile downing a Swedish or Finnish passenger plane—will test Europe’s resolve. Putin will goad:

И что ты теперь сделаешь? (“What are you going to do about it?”)

Mariupol, before and after, the Russian invasion. Might this be another city in Eastern Europe in just a few years? Credit: The Guardian / Google Maps

This isn’t new. Russia downed MH17 with BUK missiles in 2014 and an Azerbaijan Airlines plane with missiles and electronic warfare last year. Diplomacy, ener…

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