Lead story: Nvidia’s $4 trillion cliffhanger?
Nvidia became the first company in history to surpass a $4 trillion market valuation, but it may not be the most valuable of the AI era. Its position as the indispensable supplier of AI infrastructure is secure. But history shows that the first giant of every general-purpose technology boom sees its dominance fade as innovation spreads. In each previous wave, the early choke-point – be it steel, gasoline, operating systems or now AI accelerators – saw its margins migrate downstream as complementary layers matured. In the electricity era, U.S. Steel and AT&T scaled with the grid before profits migrated downstream to appliance makers. Mass production and the interstate-highway system lifted GM and the oil majors. That was until oil shocks, emissions rules and global rivals eventually rebalanced the field. Likewise, Microsoft saw its core OS margins plateau as value shifted to cloud infrastructure and SaaS.
But this market might be different. U…