Hi all, here’s what’s in today’s issue #607:
The internet is under attack: My short and long view of the internet’s future
The timeline for artificial general intelligence: Demis Hassabis now expects AGI sooner than he previously forecast. But can we test and apply AI’s discoveries fast enough?
Electric vehicles and energy security: Electric cars are helping oil-importing countries reduce their exposure to oil disruptions. I look at the security dividend from electrification.
Also: a Russian satellite’s close encounter, turning mercury into gold and self-destructing plastics… Enjoy!
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An invitation to join us and Bill Gross
What could you build with the experience of one of technology’s most prolific entrepreneurs?
Bill Gross founded Idealab, which has launched more than 175 companies, and pioneered paid search through GoTo/Overture. His latest venture, Idealab.ai, applies decades of experience to finding new business opportunities – and makes those ideas freely available.
Bill is joining us for an exclusive salon with Exponential View members. He’ll introduce the platform and take questions about what to build next.
An EV membership includes access to this event. Join us to hear directly from Bill and bring your questions.
November 5, 8am PT | 11am ET · Online · Members only
The internet’s Wuhan moment
AI is turning every minor bug into a serious vulnerability. Cyberspace is under relentless attack; we’re back in January 2020. In the short term, I argue we’ll have to sacrifice some of the internet’s openness to stay safe. In the long term, I believe a plausible path to something better exists. The pandemic gave us mRNA, and this crisis could give us software and an internet we can trust.
An additional reflection since I wrote the piece on Friday: in many instances of technological change, we’ve seen some kind of pollution intensify. Domestication of animals brought us closer to livestock and exposure to zoonotic diseases with which we still contend. Urbanization amplified disease spread; we responded with sanitation. We shouldn’t be blasé about what may happen to the internet, but we shouldn’t default to catastrophe either.
Read the essay here.
Blink, and you’ll miss AGI
Demis Hassabis keeps bringing AGI closer. At Davos in January, he estimated five to ten years. He subsequently cited three to five. Now he tells the WSJ two to three. Demis is one of the field’s more measured voices, so this feels meaningful. He’ll calibrate with what he sees in his own lab. Even if the definition of AGI is contested (or perhaps not useful), Demis is marking out a threshold of capability with which we’ll need to contend.
