🔮 Apple’s vision; polyglot LLMs; Sequoia; free knowledge; cocaine hippos, synaesthesia ++ #426
Your insider guide to AI and exponential technologies
Hi, I’m Azeem Azhar. As a global expert on exponential technologies, I advise governments, some of the world’s largest firms, and investors on how to make sense of our exponential future. I share my view on developments that I think you should know about in this newsletter every Sunday.
In today’s edition:
Visionary Apple & the near future of spatial computing;
What Sequoia’s splintering means;
ChatGPT and productivity.
Sunday chart: Apple’s vision premium
Apple announced the Apple Vision Pro this week, not a mere VR device but a new platform. “Spatial computing”, Apple calls it visionOS, offers new interface metaphors and its own developer kit, and promises a seamless digital overlay on top of your physical surroundings (see here for a breakdown of what that means).
It is a remarkably bold play. Apple analyst Neil Cybart concludes that “Apple has something big here, and they know it. This is the future of computing”, though he admits he found it trippy, freaky and surreal.
At $3,500, it’s not priced for the masses, but I doubt innovators will blanche. History shows that this is how electronic innovations work. The Apple 2, IBM PC, and Compaq Portable were all over $5,000 (inflation-adjusted). The iPhone did cost much less ($730 adjusted), but Apple isn’t expecting the Vision Pro to have the same mass adoption yet. The firm forecasts sales of only 900,000 units next year (the iPhone sells 200m units a year).
Prices will come down and Apple will, likely, introduce a non-Pro line in due course, as it has for iPads, Macs and displays. The Apple Pro Display costs £4,599, compared with just a third of that for the non-Pro monitor. Falling prices will expand the market.
Can the firm build a healthy developer environment on a device which has only a few million users? Developers need users to justify their own projects. It helps that Apple can push iOS and MacOS apps onto the Vision Pro—and that anything I do on the headset, I can pick up elsewhere in my Cupertino constellation. Apple’s Watch device only had 100m users a couple of years ago: it is a minnow compared to the other platforms. (There are more than 1.3bn iPhone users). Apple has been patient in pushing the watch, seven years ago only 1 in 30 iPhone users had a watch, today it is roughly 1 in 10. Perhaps a similar patience will emerge with visionOS devices.
And yes, I’ll be picking one up as soon as I can. The idea of a portable 4k monitor I can take with me when I am on the road is too appealing. No more hunching over a little laptop screen when I’m travelling. (Not everyone agrees, Scott Galloway for one.)
Key reads
Sequoia splinters: Sequoia Capital, possibly the most prominent VC firm in the world, has decided to split into three separate entities: Sequoia Capital in the US and Europe, Peak XV Partners in India and Southeast Asia, and HongShan in China. Sequoia was the most successful VC firm to successfully build a single global franchise in what has traditionally been a very local business. Why the split? To deal with splintering regulations as global tensions distort relations between firms and governments. Global operations ran smoothly when there were uniform global rules. Now, the US and EU are discussing outbound investment controls aimed at China, adding further complexity for global firms as they navigate the increasingly different sets of rules across countries. Additionally, the firm cited concerns about competition within its startup portfolio. This highlights the growing clout of Indian and Chinese brands, which are no longer playing second fiddle to the US.
Free knowledge: The EU Council has recommended an open-access, not-for-profit model for research publishing. This is an industry ripe for revolution, with vastly inflated profit margins. For example, Elsevier has an operating margin of 38%, larger than both Google (21%) and Goldman Sachs (28%). Publishers have exploited cost savings from moving to digital and the free labour of researchers who serve as the authors, reviewers, and editors of their journals. Even without the ethical arguments that knowledge should be freely accessible and academics unhindered by publishing finances, this is a serious concern. See a good long-form analysis of the publishing industry and the battle for open access.
Polyglot LLMs: Sweden and Korea are developing their own native-language LLMs. There are two aspects to this: firstly, the obvious—LLMs like GPT were primarily designed with English in mind, leading to lesser performance for other languages. Secondly, these models have characteristics of public infrastructure. LLMs will become the interface between a citizen and resources they access, be they private or public sector. National governments will want to ensure they maintain some oversight of that critical interface, for cultural, economic and security reasons.
See also:
Adobe’s all-in: Adobe is offering full indemnification for users of its Firefly generative AI if they are sued for copyright infringement. While this is an extension of the policy that Adobe has committed to across its previous products, it's still a big commitment amid the murky AI copyright environment. But the tide may be turning in Adobe’s favour. Many countries have already said that under current copyright laws, training AI on copyrighted data is allowed and there is little suggestion this is going to change.
Market data
In their effort to secure the critical microchip industry, France is injecting 2.9 billion euros ($3.1 billion) of government funds into building a semiconductor factory. This is the biggest subsidy it has offered since 2017.
Global offshore wind costs have declined to $74/MWh, the same cost as coal. This was driven by a competitive turbine market in China.
Shares in Unity, the second biggest gaming engine company, surged 17% after Apple announced its Vision Pro headset using their tech. Apple, meanwhile, saw only a modest 1.45% increase.
India needs to hold on to its talent. Out of the top 1,000 in the entrance exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology, 36% had emigrated after eight years, mainly to the US. This rate jumps to 62% for the top 100, and skyrockets to all but one of the top 10.
Only 25 jokes make up 90% of ChatGPT’s comic repertoire.
New sodium-ion technology could reduce 37% of 2035 lithium demand.
Short morsels to appear smart at dinner parties
📚A study suggests poverty is not the “natural” condition of humanity.
🦛The line of cocaine hippos is larger than thought.
🎓Finland is training the next generation of fact-checkers - starting in kindergarten.
🔍The CCP used TikTok god credentials to track Hong Kong protestors. The party also trained a Communist LLM, SOTA busting Mao Zedong thought.
🔥 The Central Bank of Russia went down due to a reported cyberattack.
🌈 How synaesthesia helps us learn in childhood.
💷 UBI is to be trialed in areas of England.
End note
Really encouraging to see that the UK will host a global summit on AI safety in September. The UK has good credentials for such a gathering: we have depth in artificial intelligence as well as a long-standing understanding of multilateral and international organisations. (Yes, in spite of Brexit.) London can also sit as a reasonable intermediary third-party to the US and EU blocs.
Many of the top labs and scientists have been invited. But I haven’t seen many academics who focus on ethics and fairness issues, civil society or experts from other domains on the early lists of attendees.
Have a great week!
A
What you’re up to — community updates
Hugh Knowles’s Friends of the Earth is running a crowdfunding campaign to restore nature in deprived urban areas (with some great prizes!)
Josh Berson is hosting the final in series of workshops The Future: A Retrospective on June 15
Share your updates with EV readers by telling us what you’re up to here.
