📈 Data to start your year

Time; stock market forecasts; health insurance; uranium

Good morning,

Welcome to the first edition of our Monday morning data roundup for 2025. We’re glad you enjoy it — please do share it with your friends.

1. We are closer to 2099 than 1950 & closer to 2050 than 1999. (h/t Tim Urban)

2. Year-ahead stock market forecasts are persistently rubbish, with correlations of 0.2 or 0.0 to actual outcomes, depending on the estimation method used. via

   Joachim Klement

   

3. The top 10 US stocks account for nearly 39% of the stock market. The market was last this concentrated just before the Great Depression.

4. Over two centuries, the movement to free trade shifted the source of US government revenues more visibly onto voters. (From a great JP Morgan research report.)