Exponential View

Exponential View

📈 Data to start your week – The jet fuel inflection point

Conflict could achieve what policy can’t

Azeem Azhar and Hannah Petrovic
Apr 13, 2026
∙ Paid

Six weeks of war in the Middle East have devastated lives, destroyed infrastructure and sent shockwaves through global oil markets. The aviation industry has been especially hard hit. There’s an unexpected structural consequence of this – the price gap between conventional jet fuel and sustainable alternatives is closing faster than anyone expected.

Photo by Chris Leipelt on Unsplash

The conflict has extended far beyond the immediate region. In nine days, 37,000 flights were cancelled. This cost Gulf carriers $1 billion, while rerouting added 206,000 km of daily detours and wiped out an estimated $600 million a day in tourism revenue. Refinery strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed jet fuel prices to more than double.

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