Exponential View

Exponential View

🦠 This is not a black swan

This pandemic was predictable. Now what?

Azeem Azhar
Mar 26, 2020
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Many terms can be used to describe the Covid-19 pandemic.

Virulent. It has been, spreading to 475,052 people as I type this, faster than SARS.

(Photo by Fabio Jock on Unsplash)

Unprecedented in its economic impact? Certainly. It has delivered the deepest, fastest economic shock in history, according to Nouriel Roubini.

Earlier this month, it took only 15 days for the US stock market to plummet into bear territory (a 20% decline from its peak) – the fastest such decline ever. Now, markets are down 35%, credit markets have seized up and credit spreads (like those for junk bonds) have spiked to 2008 levels. Even mainstream financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect US GDP to fall by an annualised rate of 6% in the first quarter and by 24% to 30% in the second. The US Treasury secretary, St…

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