š® The serious issue: after Trump, reforming Facebook, deep learning, dogs++ #87
On Donald Trumpās victory. Facebook, media and discourse. The state of the global village. Future silicon architectures. Deep learning learns to rap. Robots and the Rubikās cube. The origin of dogs
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Dept of the near future
š EV subscriber, Saul Klein publishes hisĀ Majority World ReportĀ for 2016. EXCELLENT slideĀ presentation on the macro-challenges and opportunities of the coming few years.
š EV reader, Maciej Olpinski, presents Userfeeds.io, a content ranking and reputation system based on shared economic interests. Somewhat technical but some interesting early ideas. Think Pagerank meets blockchain vs Facebook.Ā THOUGHT PROVOKING
šŖšŗĀ How to reform Europe: Ā why only a twin track approach can work. Very THOUGHTFUL, from Eric Beinhocker, one of my favourite thinkers. (Twenty minute read.)
š® Ryan Avent and I in conversation over the future of the political economy and the prospects for work and employment. Recorded before the election, the Exponential View podcast covers many of the issues that underlie this weekās result. Ā Repost from last week. MUST LISTEN
š»Ā How the system-on-a-chip will displace the CPU: Ā āForm-factor, cost and power-per-function are now critical drivers in the mobile market and that in turn has increased the importance of on-chip integration.ā INSIGHTFUL
Dept of Facebook, social media & discourse
Mark Zuckerberg doesnāt believe that content on Facebook can influence how people vote. But at the same time, the company contends that advertising on Facebook does influence what people will buy.
That is a tightrope to walk. Or as a friend tweeted: āAwwwkwaaard!ā
Read Zuckerbergās statement here. Ā Doc Searlsās comment on the statement is also worth looking at. Ā Pew Researchās data disagrees with Zuckerberg too.
āļø Niemanlab: āThe forces that drove this electionās media failure are likely to get worse.ā
š£ Emily Bell: āFacebook can no longer be āI didnāt do itā boy of global mediaā
š¤ Tim O'Reilly on how Facebookās chase for engagement puts the truth second, and what the firm needs to do about this.
The problem that Facebook faces, as we have discussedĀ in many previous issues, is to reconcile its role as dominant media platform with its objective of serving engaged users to advertisers.
Engagement (which ultimately drives strategic financial value) is easy to enumerate and target.
Truth, diversity, serendipity, civil discourse, reason, empathy, all things we might want our civic discourse to manifest are just much harder to make explicit. And so they are much harder to build. And itās not clear they lead to more dollars from Unilever, American Express or Nestle compared to the current strategy of optimising content to drive user engagement.
Short-term incentives are misaligned with the long-term benefits of civil society. Worse, the gains are taking by the producers, in this case, Facebookās owners, while the costs are borne by society. (Seem familiar?)
Could Facebook tune the newsfeed another way? Yes, of course, it could. It could optimise its newsfeed by allocating more weight to a user reading a story from sources that had broad and diverse (and long-standing) trust signals. Or it could reward the algorithm for showing me some stories on topics read by people on the other side of the interest graph from me. Or liked by people who sometimes, but not always, disagreed with me. Or it could put greater weight on items read or promoted by people based on their Scientific h-index.
Facebook chooses not to. Is that the right decision or the wrong one? We can discuss that. But what seems certain is that these choices are Facebookās to make.
Note: PeerIndex built an algorithmic curation engine back in 2009 to its acquisition in 2014 and we contended with many of the issues of trust, credibility, filter bubbles, serendipity and discovery. We learnt that sorting signals across 300m+ users per month was not an easy technical task, but that it was possible. But ultimately meta-editorial judgement was required to determine our specific technical implementations (what objective you target, what features you evaluate, how you weight them and what errors you allow.)
Dept of Trump
The recent US election is so important that I am sharing a few interesting perspectives below.
On what happens next
J Bradford Delong: Has the US elected a Schwarzenegger, a Berlusconi or a Mussolini?
In case itās the latter, Masha Gessen on how to survive in an autocracy.
š„ āHe was as surprised as anyone.ā Trump biographers discuss how Donald might have responded to the win.
On voting dimensions and the campaign
Joan Williams: What so many people donāt get about the US working class.Ā GOOD ANALYSIS
Matt Lira on how the RNC and Trump campaignsĀ leant heavily into digital platforms to prioritise meaningful online conversations. INSIGHTFUL
How Trumpās data team so different signals to everyone elseĀ (and the role of a UK-based firm in it.)
Jed Kolko: Trump support was strongest in counties where jobs were routine.
Republican-leaning cities are more at risk to robot-based automation than Democrat ones.
Note: There is a lot of cross-correlation here. Over the last decades, wages in routine jobs have stagnated while wages in non-routine, creative and executive jobs have increased substantially. And those jobs have clustered in metropolises.
On technology and economics:
Trump supporters welcome factory automation and robots. Fascinating ground-level reporting.
šĀ How easy would it be to make the iPhone in America?Ā Good read on global supply chains. CouldĀ a 787 DreamlinerĀ be built entirely by American works?
Dept of Artificial Intelligence
DeepMind shows off a system that ālearns the laws of physicsā
Generating dope rhymes with deep learning.Ā NSFW language.
š Teslaās own numbers may show Autopilot has a higher crash rate than human drivers.
Machine learning system can predict suicidal behaviour
Exponential View ā¤ļø San Francisco - Salon
Very excited about having my first event in San Francisco. Iām excited to have teamed up with our friends at Lux Capital and Silicon Valley Bank to hold the discussion.
Iāll be talking about technology, automation and society. All the more relevant since the election result.
The event is on December 1st at 1800 in WeWork, Taylor St.
There is huge demandĀ so please apply for a ticket.
Short morsels to appear smart at dinner parties
How Amazon Web Services build an $11bn run rate business.
The sales during Alibabaās Singles Day are astounding
A fifth of the worldās vacuums are now robots.
Why diverse teams are smarter:Ā a greater fact orientation andĀ more innovation
Wind power approaches 5c per kWh
A robot solves a Rubikās cube in less than a second.
Finnish schools scrap subjects in favour of topics.
š Our best friends: on the origin of dogs
End note
I want to give you heads up on our last Exponential View salon of the year. Ā It is in London on December 5th, on the Future of Longevity.
**Register early interest now.Ā **
This week was heavier on the politics and lighter on exponential issues. I think the Ā election called for it.
Have a great week!