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Resilience isn't the only game in town

It is tough times for start-ups. Even the strongest rarely have more than 12-18 months of runway, predicated on hitting milestones and raising more money. The venture capital spigot won’t dry up, but it will tighten dramatically. And consumers and businesses will similarly clamp down on their spending or, locked-in, be simply unable to spend.

NFX, an investment group, surveyed 400 founders and VCs to take their temperature. Founders are more optimistic, 70% of them think the US economy will have recovered by April 21. Half of VCs, on the other hand, reckon it will be April 2022 or later.

As I discussed in my note last week, I think the recovery will take much longer and the economy will veer on a different path.

There is a Z-axis

Despite what founders or analysts or consultants think the recovery won’t be V-shaped, W-shaped, I-shaped, nor a slow tick ✔️, with a long recovery.

How deep we go is up for debate. Goldman Sachs has suggested a 6.2% decline in US GDP. McKinsey & Co, whose lo…