š®šĀ Blockchains & tokens; Uberās business plan; Apple & Tesla have prangs; Chinese AI; meatless meat, lava lamps & North Korean spies++ #128
Behind China's AI domination. Brexit and Kremlin. Asset tokenization,Ā ownership shifts. Throwback to Uber's early days. How Waymo covered 8bn miles of car training. Republican states and robot intensity. Clean meat revolution.
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DEPT OF THE NEAR FUTURE
š Data, cash, users, engineers: perhaps Chinaās plan for AI world domination isnāt so crazy at all.Ā ExamplesĀ include the largest investment round in an AI company. (Also, superb essay about how one leading Chinese Bitcoin mining firm wants to turn its hardware expertise to the AI opportunity.)
š·šŗĀ Kompromat! Quite an amazingĀ tweetstorm unpicking a curious connection between a popular pro-Brexit account and the Kremlinās foreign policy priorities. (See also, analysts find a feedback loop between pro-Kremlin Twitter bots and right-wing American memes. And a great profile of a physicist using complex adaptive models to predict behaviour of ISIS and the Alt-Right.)
š±Ā BlockchainĀ promises to tokenize assets of all types, given them a much-desired liquidity. How will that change our notion of ownership? Preston Byrne gives aĀ lawyerās view of tokenization & liquidity:
ātokenizingā they usually mean ācutting cornersā.
(This recent essay in Fortune provides a solid overview to the blockchain mania to bring you up to speed.)
šÆĀ Estonia, which has pioneered thinking around citizenship in the digital age, mulls launching a cryptocurrency. Incidentally, global Bitcoin mining now uses the same amount of electricity as the entirety of Tunisia (population 11m).
šĀ Eight lessons from tracking Gartnerās technological hype cycle for more than two decades. Also, is AI really the next technological revolution (in the Carlota Perez sense)?
DEPT OF UBER
āļøĀ What donāt you know when you found a start-up? A lot. When people look at leviathans like Google, Facebook or Uber today, they often see the negative impact of their dominant market positions. They forget that these firms started small, and, in Uberās case, with bad PowerPoint. Garrett Camp, the other founder of Uber, just released the firmās seed round pitch deck from 2009.
Itās a must read if you care about startups. And a must read if youāre opining on how regulators or consumers should deal with firms like Uber. The initial plan pitches Uber as a New York and SF limousine service whose āBest-Case Scenario [is to] become market leader, $1B+ in yearly revenue.ā
What you donāt know when you found a startup, eh? What you canāt knowĀ unless you go on that voyage.
To put that all in context, Uberās revenues hit $8.7bn for the second quarter of 2017, more than double the same period last year. The number of trips is up 150% y-on-yĀ driven mostly by developing markets, despite setbacks in China, Russia, and in the Middle East, against Careem, and in Indonesia, against Go Jek. (Leaked revenue details here.)
š°Ā Uberās also softening its hard-as-nails Ayn Rand-ian image. It has introduced driver tips. In the first two months, driver tips totalled some $50m. Uber is estimated to have 2m drivers globally but tipping has been rolled out progressively so it is too early to say what the monthly per driver tip benchmark will be.
Jessica Lessin investigates Uber's CEO conundrum which includes an insightful comment by Roger McNamee. He "cannot see a āhigh growthā path out of this mess. The smart strategy is to retrench, conserve cash, try to make the model work and grow from there."
Perhaps, this is why many of Uberās later stage investors are marking down the companies stock by as much as 15%.
DEPT OF SELF-DRIVING CARS
š Ā How Waymo trains its cars. Lovely insight, including how Waymo trains 25,000 self-driving cars in a virtual environment. They have covered more than 8bn miles.
Ben Evans:Ā There are winner-take-all effects in self-driving cars: maps and software.
Apple hasĀ scaled back its ambitions in self-driving cars.
DEPT OF ROBOTS
Chinaās robot density lags behind many other major economies, but it is investing in a robot revolution which may impact the global economy:
By turbocharging supply and depressing demand, automation risks exacerbating Chinaās reliance on export-driven growth ā threatening hopes for a more balanced domestic and global economy.
šĀ Robot intensity in the US is much higher in Republican-leaning states than Democrat-leaning ones.
š· UK scientists create the smallest surgical robot.
What will it do to kids to have digital butlers they can boss around?
WHAT YOU ARE UP TO
š„ Congratulations to long-time EV reader, Theo Blackwell, for being appointed to the Chief Digital Officer of London, working for Mayor Sadiq Khan.
SHORT MORSELS TO APPEAR SMART AT DINNER PARTIES
Quantum-computing firm Rigetti opens its innovation to 40 machine learning startups.
ā³Ā Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck.
š®Ā An early leader in clean meatĀ gets substantial support to kick-start the new industry. DFJ partner, Steve Jurvetson, on what excited his team to chip in. (The impact of moving away from meating would be felt in GHG emission.)
Chimps learn rock-paper-scissors similarly to 4-year-olds.
Scientist rethinking the nature of space and time after a discovery of an āexquisiteā geometric structure.
Facebookās security team eliminates 1m dodgy accounts per day.
š°šµĀ Watch actual North Korean spies get caught by Ukrainian security forces.
šĀ 10% of the Internet is encrypted by lava lamps. (I wrote about this myself 20 years ago.)
What metals are really needed for the electric vehicle revolution? Lithium demand looks set to outstrip supply. Cobalt remains icky.
š¦ Tim Harford: Why didnāt electricity change manufacturing quickly?
END NOTE
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