{"audience":"only_paid","audience_before_archived":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.exponentialview.co/p/monday-data-who-won-the-trade-war","default_comment_sort":null,"editor_v2":false,"exempt_from_archive_paywall":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"id":221090734,"podcast_art_url":null,"podcast_duration":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"podcast_url":null,"post_date":"2026-10-19T13:31:29.521Z","updated_at":"2026-10-19T13:34:12.757Z","publication_id":2252,"search_engine_description":null,"search_engine_title":null,"section_id":null,"should_send_free_preview":true,"show_guest_bios":true,"slug":"monday-data-who-won-the-trade-war","social_title":null,"subtitle":"What eight years of tariffs actually did","teaser_post_eligible":true,"title":"📈 Monday data: Who won the trade war?","type":"newsletter","video_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","meter_type":"metered","live_stream_id":null,"is_published":true,"restacks":4,"reactions":{"❤":61},"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"section_pins":[],"has_shareable_clips":false,"previous_post_slug":"ev-606","next_post_slug":"the-internets-wuhan-moment","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MMdp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea337e4f-195f-4ac0-b4a1-90864bfe9a15_2048x1183.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":221090734,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"What eight years of tariffs actually did","body_html":"

In the AI Investment Brief today: Early AI adopters report gains, plus CoreWeave's bond woes

Trump’s first major tariffs were introduced in January 2018 – a (very) long eight years ago. The first China-specific ones, in July that year. The aims were multiple: to reduce the bilateral deficit (which in 2017 stood at 375 billion dollars with China, nearly half of America’s goods deficit of $792 billion), target intellectual property theft and counter Chinese policies that favored domestic companies; and improve the US leverage by reducing its dependency on China.

On paper, some of that worked. But look closer, and you see that China didn’t disappear. Supply chains got a remapping instead.

Today’s Monday Data looks at what eight years of tariffs have really achieved.

Subscribe now

Mind the label

\"\"

The immediate impact of tariffs on China was a drop in the share of US imports from China. In the mid 2010s, the share of goods imports was around 21%1. By this summer, it had plateaued at around 8%.

\"\"

The Chinese engineering state found a way around it — tariff-jumping investments, i.e., relocating production to other countries. A product made in Vietnam or Mexico can reach the US as that country’s export, even if the factory, or the parts that went into making it, are Chinese.

Chinese-owned factories shipped 25% of Vietnam’s exports to the US between 2020 and 2023, up from 11% in 2018-19 – imports that don’t carry a “Made in China” label. Chinese imports have dropped, but China’s supply-chain impact remains strong.

\"\"

In fact, the share of Chinese value added in US imports that arrived directly from China dropped from 84% to 75% over 7 years, while the share arriving via Vietnam more than tripled.

\"\"

The export machine is fine

","has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"In the AI Investment Brief today: Early AI adopters report gains, plus CoreWeave's bond woes","wordcount":802,"post_preview_limit":1000,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"0d857d51-4985-4ea2-b77e-557aba070419","publication_id":2252,"name":"United States","slug":"united-states","hidden":false},{"id":"682e6dce-8526-4f27-b33a-4d83f63d8eb4","publication_id":2252,"name":"Critical Minerals","slug":"critical-minerals","hidden":false},{"id":"98b9d202-3dff-40bc-a44f-1db4ef738cb3","publication_id":2252,"name":"Trade","slug":"trade","hidden":false},{"id":"b199a744-0bda-43ae-9305-d1c7bc9c0d48","publication_id":2252,"name":"Data","slug":"data","hidden":false},{"id":"c931f603-edb7-48b3-919b-03e741316372","publication_id":2252,"name":"US politics","slug":"us-politics","hidden":false},{"id":"d3c81966-df1a-4a7c-8790-51400f588a54","publication_id":2252,"name":"China","slug":"china","hidden":false},{"id":"edebc348-d3c3-4019-b0a3-515305a35cc6","publication_id":2252,"name":"Tariffs","slug":"tariffs","hidden":false},{"id":"eff7c1a8-d01d-4c44-ac4e-fdf5e6b94727","publication_id":2252,"name":"Monday data","slug":"monday-data","hidden":false}],"postCountryBlocks":[],"disable_drop_cap":false,"cover_image_crop":null,"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[53.37209302325579,43.48837209302328,211.5116279069767],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[27.75348837209302,22.613953488372108,109.98604651162789],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[153,148,233],"population":3},"Muted":{"rgb":[128,128,130],"population":96},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[86,86,89],"population":6},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[179,177,210],"population":114}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":710379,"name":"Azeem Azhar","handle":"exponentialview","photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/09961c12-4209-4296-8a12-0762a41809a3_400x400.jpeg","bio":"AI and exponential technologies.","profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-23T07:47:57.119Z","reader_installed_at":"2022-08-15T17:16:58.456Z","publicationUsers":[{"id":208,"user_id":710379,"publication_id":2252,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2252,"name":"Exponential View","subdomain":"exponentialview","custom_domain":"www.exponentialview.co","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"AI analysis worth reading","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/46fc2cf0-7745-4c27-8875-94a97cb1fc9f_900x900.png","author_id":710379,"primary_user_id":710379,"theme_var_background_pop":"#ff0000","created_at":"2018-08-02T07:33:46.151Z","email_from_name":"Azeem Azhar, Exponential View","copyright":"EPIIPLUS1 Ltd","founding_plan_name":"Fan Club","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":11293297,"user_id":710379,"publication_id":10993965,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":10993965,"name":"AI Investment Brief by Exponential View","subdomain":"aiinvestment","custom_domain":"www.investmentbrief.ai","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Essential analysis of the AI cycle from the Exponential View research desk.","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b50215f3-8b01-45e8-9661-210afb365288_512x512.png","author_id":710379,"primary_user_id":null,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2026-09-09T16:44:01.439Z","email_from_name":"AI Investment Brief by Exponential View","copyright":"Azeem Azhar / EPIIPLUS1 Ltd","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"twitter_screen_name":"azeem","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":10,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}},{"id":296829881,"name":"Hannah Petrovic","handle":"hannahpetrovic","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gwHU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1df07d07-1752-4012-928e-8d02ed473e94_1989x1989.jpeg","bio":"Senior Researcher @ Exponential View, Astronomy PhD","profile_set_up_at":"2024-12-09T09:07:02.241Z","reader_installed_at":"2024-12-09T11:53:20.257Z","publicationUsers":[{"id":3564955,"user_id":296829881,"publication_id":2252,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2252,"name":"Exponential View","subdomain":"exponentialview","custom_domain":"www.exponentialview.co","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"AI analysis worth reading","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/46fc2cf0-7745-4c27-8875-94a97cb1fc9f_900x900.png","author_id":710379,"primary_user_id":710379,"theme_var_background_pop":"#ff0000","created_at":"2018-08-02T07:33:46.151Z","email_from_name":"Azeem Azhar, Exponential View","copyright":"EPIIPLUS1 Ltd","founding_plan_name":"Fan Club","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":3765768,"user_id":296829881,"publication_id":3694210,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":3694210,"name":"Hannah Petrovic","subdomain":"hannahpetrovic","custom_domain":null,"custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"","logo_url":null,"author_id":296829881,"primary_user_id":null,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2025-01-06T12:15:36.879Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"Hannah Petrovic","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"profile","is_personal_mode":true,"logo_url_wide":null}},{"id":11478661,"user_id":296829881,"publication_id":10993965,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":10993965,"name":"AI Investment Brief by Exponential View","subdomain":"aiinvestment","custom_domain":"www.investmentbrief.ai","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Essential analysis of the AI cycle from the Exponential View research desk.","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b50215f3-8b01-45e8-9661-210afb365288_512x512.png","author_id":710379,"primary_user_id":null,"theme_var_background_pop":"#FF6719","created_at":"2026-09-09T16:44:01.439Z","email_from_name":"AI Investment Brief by Exponential View","copyright":"Azeem Azhar / EPIIPLUS1 Ltd","founding_plan_name":"Founding Member","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":1000,"status":{"bestsellerTier":1000,"subscriberTier":null,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":1000},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":61,"comment_count":0,"child_comment_count":0,"audio_items":[{"post_id":221090734,"voice_id":"en-GB-OllieMultilingualNeural","audio_url":null,"type":"tts","status":"paywalled"}],"vg_wort_pixel_url":null,"is_geoblocked":false,"sponsorshipEditionBanner":null,"hidden":true,"is_editor_preview":false,"sponsorshipUpgradePaywallPlacementId":null,"hasCashtag":false,"unlockedWithIP":false,"unlockedWithCampaign":false,"themeVariables":{"color_theme_bg_pop":"#7671ec","background_pop":"#7671ec","color_theme_bg_web":null,"cover_bg_color":"#FFFFFF","cover_bg_color_secondary":"#f0f0f0","background_pop_darken":"#605be9","print_on_pop":"#ffffff","color_theme_bg_pop_darken":"#605be9","color_theme_print_on_pop":"#ffffff","color_theme_bg_pop_20":"rgba(118, 113, 236, 0.2)","color_theme_bg_pop_30":"rgba(118, 113, 236, 0.3)","print_pop":"#7671ec","color_theme_accent":"#7671ec","cover_print_primary":"#363737","cover_print_secondary":"#757575","cover_print_tertiary":"#b6b6b6","cover_border_color":"#7671ec","font_family_headings_preset":"'SF Pro Display', -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Inter', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'","font_weight_headings_preset":700,"font_preset_heading":"sans","home_hero":"feature-media","home_posts":"list","web_bg_color":"#ffffff","background_contrast_1":"#f0f0f0","background_contrast_2":"#dddddd","background_contrast_3":"#b7b7b7","background_contrast_4":"#929292","background_contrast_5":"#515151","color_theme_bg_contrast_1":"#f0f0f0","color_theme_bg_contrast_2":"#dddddd","color_theme_bg_contrast_3":"#b7b7b7","color_theme_bg_contrast_4":"#929292","color_theme_bg_contrast_5":"#515151","color_theme_bg_elevated":"#ffffff","color_theme_bg_elevated_secondary":"#f0f0f0","color_theme_bg_elevated_tertiary":"#dddddd","color_theme_detail":"#e6e6e6","background_contrast_pop":"rgba(118, 113, 236, 0.4)","color_theme_bg_contrast_pop":"rgba(118, 113, 236, 0.4)","theme_bg_is_dark":"0","print_on_web_bg_color":"#363737","print_secondary_on_web_bg_color":"#868787","header_bg_color":"#ffffff","header_bg_color_h":"0","header_bg_color_s":"0%","header_bg_color_l":"100%","print_on_header_bg_color":"#363737","print_secondary_on_header_bg_color":"#868787","header_bg_contrast_1":"#f0f0f0","header_bg_contrast_2":"#dddddd","header_bg_contrast_3":"#b7b7b7","header_bg_contrast_4":"#929292","header_bg_elevated":"#ffffff","header_bg_elevated_secondary":"#f0f0f0","header_bg_elevated_tertiary":"#dddddd","header_detail_color":"#e6e6e6","background_pop_rgb":"118, 113, 236","color_theme_bg_pop_rgb":"118, 113, 236","color_theme_accent_rgb":"118, 113, 236"},"comments":[]}