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now (34 mins) | Anthropic’s S-1 should finally address the elephant in the room: is AI real?","body_html":"<div class=\"callout-block\" data-callout=\"true\"><p><em>I went live on Substack earlier today to discuss Anthropic’s S-1. Watch the video and read the email for my takeaways.</em></p></div><p>Anthropic’s S-1 should finally address the elephant in the room: is AI real?</p><p>The S-1 clearly shows that Anthropic is no longer a lab. It is a business with satisfied customers, cash flow, and a war chest. It doesn’t answer whether the firm can maintain the growth rate it needs to pay for the compute it has promised to buy.</p><p>The lab has become a business, and it looks like it can become reliably profitable.</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg\" width=\"1100\" height=\"579\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:579,&quot;width&quot;:1100,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;s1_2_revenue_margin&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;s1_2_revenue_margin&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"s1_2_revenue_margin\" title=\"s1_2_revenue_margin\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CO8-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78b63a9d-cf9f-4e0e-94d2-d99f55b86231_1100x579.jpeg 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" fetchpriority=\"high\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset\"><button tabindex=\"0\" type=\"button\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke=\"var(--color-fg-primary)\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" class=\"icon-noB79L\"><g><path d=\"M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882\"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex=\"0\" type=\"button\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M\"><svg xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 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New models seem key to igniting growth, with more than 80% of current revenue coming from models six months old or less. The company might slip into a marginal loss in Q3 because of payments to its foundation.</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg 848w, 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data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:697,&quot;width&quot;:1100,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oqRC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43bd2100-a397-4e35-9648-a8727d711f91_1100x697.jpeg 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset\"><button tabindex=\"0\" type=\"button\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke=\"var(--color-fg-primary)\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" class=\"icon-noB79L\"><g><path d=\"M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882\"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex=\"0\" type=\"button\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M\"><svg xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L\"><polyline points=\"15 3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\" y2=\"14\"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>We ran a detailed analysis at <a href=\"https://www.investmentbrief.ai/p/anthropic-from-a-lab-to-a-real-business\">AI Investment Brief, covering six key questions across 39 charts.</a></p><p>For EV members, I want to focus on what this filing reveals about the AI transition: where demand is real, how the economics are changing, and what could constrain the next phase of growth. Here’s my read on the key findings.</p><p>If you’d like to dig into Anthropic’s finances in more detail, our <a href=\"https://www.investmentbrief.ai/p/anthropic-from-a-lab-to-a-real-business\">AI Investment Brief analysis</a> is for you.</p><h3><strong>Customer concentration is not</strong><em><strong> </strong></em><strong>a major issue</strong></h3>","has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I went live on Substack earlier today to discuss Anthropic’s S-1. 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